Submitted by Shiv Bhandari06.16.2008
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
Judgment on July 8, 2008:
While the trends for Twitter are moving in the right direction, according to Compete.com (this prediction's chosen source for judgment), Twitter closed for the month of June with 1,819,237 visitors - just a bit shy of the 2 million mark. In a rare instance, the community was wrong on this one. -- The Industry Standard.
Original Prediction:
This year, Compete has seen Twitter traffic nearly double from February to April, currently attracting nearly 1.2 million people per month.
It is currently growing at a rate of 30.5% per month.
This is a prediction that Compete's People Count for twitter.com will register 2 million or more U.S. visitors by July 2008.
Bets will close on 30 June 2008. The June 2008 data will be used as the source for judgement as it is made available at compete.com.
Price History
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Jun 30 2008 | Current Consensus: | 53.74% | Total Bets: | 27 |
| Today's Change: | 0% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 61.06% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 33.18% |
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Comments
Compete appears to release data monthly. Can we tweak this slightly to specify using either the June 2008 or July 2008 figure? Rather than have to guess what will be used or whether we'll still have May data as the most recent on July 1st?
@Bradley, I made some modifications to the judging source data in the rules. Thanks.
Thanks, that helps.
Hi Shiv,
Would you contact me regarding a response to your above news? I wanted to know if you are aware that Bluepulse, a main competitor of Twitter averages 200 million messages a month.
Wow, per TwitDir they are only 5K shy heading into the weekend. . .not that their reply woes this week did them any favors! TwitDir is a pretty reliable source for their user #'s, by the way:
http://twitdir.com/
Are you talking about the tag line "search within the 1 996 420 twitterers we know!" That's just the number of users, not the number of visitors to the site this month. Also, the number includes people outside the U.S.
The prediction isn't measuring how many users of twitter there are, just the number of visitors to the site. Even though I'm not a user of twitter, if I'm in the U.S. and I visit the site, it's good enough for the prediction.
As soon as Compete.com's June figures update, we can close this out.
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