Submitted by Shiv Bhandari07.18.2008
Two new Kindle models are to be released soon. TechCrunch reports,
"The large screen Kindle is perfect to target the college/university textbook market, a $5.5 billion market annually in the U.S. alone.
Most publishers now offer electronic versions of their textbooks - McGraw-Hill Education, for example, publishes 95% of their books electronically as well as in print. But there is no compelling device to read them on.
The current kindle is too small, and laptops run out of power too quickly. A new large screen kindle would solve those problems. The battery life is much longer than most electronic devices, and carrying a large Kindle is still a lot better than carrying ten heavy textbooks.
Our guess is that Amazon will make a major push into the educational markets next year - it’s the only obvious reason to create a large screen Kindle."
http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/07/17/amazon-to-target-55-billion-textboo...
Prediction: When the large-screen Kindle is released, Amazon will have special offers for educational institutions, AND/OR the promotional material will prominently feature the Kindle being used in an educational setting. TIS editors will judge whether either of the conditions are met.
Suggested Odds50.00%
Prediction Close Date:02.28.2009 (EST)
Members will be rewarded with S$25,000.00 Standard Dollars for successfully submitting Suggestions which are popularly accepted by the community, vetted by The Industry Standard and added to the site.
Votes
Vote Volumes: 10 4 | Should this be predicted by The Standard? |
Comments
Interesting idea.
What happens if the new-format Kindle ISN'T released? Or at least isn't released in the timeframe specified. Or AMZN even declares that it won't be released?
Does AMZN currently offer deals on the Kindle 1.0 to educational institutions? If so then having them for the 2.0 (or one of the 2.0 versions) isn't all that significant.
Amazon currently does no have such an offer. For now I've set the prediction at a random far-off date, with the idea that TIS fine tune it once the new Kindle is officially announced. As soon as the new Kindle is officially announced (its release date need not be announced) the close date can be shifted to a month after that.
P.S. I can see that you're an AMZN stockholder ;)
Okay, that helps answer one potential concern. I'm a bit surprised, I would have thought Bezos would have tried to target schools already. Granted discounts on hardware are more problematic than academic versions of software, don't all the various computer manufacturers offer them routinely? Should have been a natural market to try to penetrate.
(not an AMZN stockholder, actually)
I wonder if TIS staff would entertain the idea of having predictions where base assumptions can turn out not to be true have a specified judgment of 50%. I.e. in a suggestion like this you could have the prediction examine how AMZN markets the product IF it is released and have the prediction judged at 50% if it isn't released by a specified date. Might help allow for some more speculative suggestions while still allowing for a graceful exit when it can be pre-identified that the suggestion has a significant risk of failing to be meaningful and therefore impossible to ever reasonably judge.
What I had in mind was that the suggestion would be converted into a prediction only when official word comes out. Though 50% payout is a good idea. That would open up a blue ocean of predictions.
That's a very interesting idea, Bradley. Currently we can only judge on the binary, i.e. 0 or 100 (on/off, happened/didn't happen). Adding a 50% rule to the judgment algorithm would definitely add more complexity. I can tell you, I personally wish I could have the tool the way you describe it as the predictions themselves get parsed to the nth degree at times, so clicking "publish" often makes my index finger shake. ;) Not to mention judging a prediction that has over 100 bets.
However, in your scenario, for those who bought in at 50, and watched the market go from one end to the other - judging at 50 could make them a tad miffed.
In the grand scheme of things, since this isn't fantasy football or a predictive market about elections (obvious 0/1 lose/win bets), we'll always have a bit of subjective risk involved when closing these out. What I want to move towards, however, is a model in which you all - my big-time players - have more ultimate control (with audit trails). TIS would play more the referee in a model like this. You'll still have differences of opinion, but that's part of what I really like about our market. The discussions are so much more interesting to me, oftentimes, than the predictions themselves.
Just so you all know, we're going to try and open up a Team Blog next week to move some of these discussions over there. Then, eventually, a forum. But look next week for a Team Blog area, and a "Discussions" page where all site comments are captured coming soon.
1) Team Blog ... yes!!
2) Forum ..... yes!!
Other nice to haves ....
1) Partial cashouts
2) Ability to add prediction to a "Watch List"
3) Parsing of bets vs cashouts (bets and cashouts currently increments the bet counter)
4) Revising template for new prediction to require explicit criteria(s) and date(s) as well as reference article link(s)
5) Charting of bets/volume relative to consensus % (over time)
6) Alert (via SMS, email, etc)
As long as we're tossing things onto the wishlist, some sort of metric of how much S$ is at play. I'm not sure how that would really work. Perhaps two numbers for the (net) absolute amount dropped in on each side.
It also would help distinguish between the people that make S$1,000 bets as their routine quantum and those that move in S$100,000 chunks as a means of setting a "watch" flag.
Mmm, something else that might be interesting is a running count of the number of unique people that are currently invested on each side of the prediction. Seeing the bet count continue to increment doesn't give information about whether more people are playing or if it's just the same people adding to existing positions (or, as David points out, cashing out).
*Waiting eagerly for the fora, whether team-based or general*
@David, thanks for your comments. I can tell you straight out that:
1) the blog is coming
2) forums are a few months off, but we all want them (as long as moderating them isn't too big of a drag)
3) We'll look into this. We had partial cashouts available prior to the site launch, but yanked it at the last minute. In the future, it would be under an "advanced trade" tab of sorts
4) We're building a "wizard" to try and make prediction suggestions more formulaic and consistent from the community
5) We have the tech, it just hasn't passed our QA yet
6) Alerts - look next week for phase 1. We'll be rolling out several new alerts and alert types in the next 3 weeks. You're reading our minds!
@Bradley, we have the ability to show the pool volume, but have been waiting for the market to mature some. Expect this in what we're internally dubbing Prediction Market 2.0 (aiming at late Fall 2008 for the release). We can show everyone involved in a bet (like Digg shows who all in voting on a submission) but your idea of showing the pro/against number totals would eliminate the privacy issues. We'll think about that one. I still like the idea of having a tab where I could see everyone who bet on something (they could "hide" if they wanted to).
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