Submitted by Bradley Baker07.18.2008
GOOG today shed 52.12 points (9.77%) to 481.32 after a disappointing earnings report. GOOG's 52-week low stands at 412.11, while it's 52-week high is 747.24.
This prediction is that GOOG will close at a share price in excess of 550 before it next closes at a share price less than 450. It will remain open for trading until one of the two conditions applies.
Note that this prediction only looks at official closing price, not intraday trades or after-market action.
Suggested Odds50.00%
Prediction Close Date:12.31.2009 (EST)
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Comments
Like the idea but timing for ROI is hard to ascertain it GOOG decides to stagnate between $450 and $550 (since it states "remain open for trading until ..."). Also, GOOG dropped to $467 today and dropping another $17 in the immediate term may not be entirely possible before the suggestion can be made into a prediction for play. Granted closing prices are used for judgement would ignore the wild swings.
Mmmm, something that makes making money (hard to predict ROI) more difficult, or requiring more skill to do well. Yeah, THAT couldn't have been intentional. :)
Boundary conditions might require adjustment. Idea is to create a bracket around the current price that is fairly reachable by a volitile stock (such as GOOG) over a relatively short time, although with enough room to move that it doesn't get insta-bet in the correct eventual direction with a high degree of certainty.
@Bradley, errata from earlier comment (possible -> impossible). I am all for more challenging prediction (some folks might shy away from such challenge). Agree that the bracket would need to be modified. BTW, GOOG went as low as $465 today but closed at $468.80. However, after hours trade shows it is heading south again to $461.60.
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