Submitted by David Kuan07.20.2008
E3 is not what it used to be.
The change in size, format and visibility has made E3 a lackluster event. Several companies have decided to skip the event altogether, and others have voiced their disappointment with the current format.
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter issued a statement in July echoing sentiments from EA’s John Riccitiello, Ubisoft’s Alain Corre and Acclaim’s Dave Perry in saying that E3 is, well, dead.
“In our view, E3 is headed for extinction, unless the publishers and console manufacturers wake up to the fact that nobody cares about the show anymore,” said Pachter.
The prediction is for E3 to be modified heavily or cease altogether in 2009.
An official announcement that qualifies the format change or cancellation prior to end of March 2009 is needed for favorable judgement. Qualified format changes must include at least one of the following:
1) Change date of event back to Spring (between March 1 - June 15)
2) Attendance size to accommodate at least 10K attendees.
Lack of an official announcement by end of March 2009 will render an unfavorable judgement.
Suggested Odds50.00%
Prediction Close Date:02.28.2009 (EST)
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Comments
"qualifies the format change" is awfully vague. Not sure I have a suggestion for improved language, however.
@Bradley, modified to include explicit qualifiers and added supporting reference articles
David, my feeling is its too vague. The ESA has already pretty much confirmed that it won't be the same next year, so that part is a given. I think more specific change or just toss the change and leave it at a "Will there or won't there" would be better.
@Cyndy, ESA may have provided the indication but the number of developers that have shunned ESA this year may elect to forego E3 altogether in 2009. Regardless of the format change (event date, location to accommodate size of attendees, costs for developers showcase, etc), the lack of participation may force ESA to rethink their "modified" plan yet again. For the moment, ESA has indicated that there will be an E3 in 2009 with changes. Having a prediction criteria on "will" or "will not" makes it rather easy. I would like to add additional criteria to make the bet more interesting with likelihood of favorable or unfavorable judgement. Given that you have covered E3 (for TIS) this year, what additional criterias would you recommend?
I like the changes itemized. "Back to May" might be too specific. Perhaps "spring" (as defined by the equinox and solstice)? Don't know if including mid-June in that results in too small a change being necessary. Id' hate to see a change to April not count as a sufficiently large change.
@Bradley, modified to Spring with explicit date range.
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