Submitted by The Standard01.23.2008
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
Judgment on June 18, 2008: Per the comments below (thanks, Bradley), the increase was a healthy 18.2%, but not 25-40% which the prediction required. Judged at S$0. -- The Industry Standard
Original prediction:
2007 saw a 25%-40% increase in ad revenues YOY over 2006, depending on the type of ad unit. Search advertising was up 40% during the same timeframe.
2008 will see the move from print and TV advertising to online advertising at the same remarkable pace.
So, the prediction is that online ad revenues for Q1 2008 will meet or beat Q1 2007 by at least a 25% increase. Results should be out by the end of April. This will be judgd once they are made available.
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Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Apr 20 2008 | Current Consensus: | 38.94% | Total Bets: | 188 |
| Today's Change: | 0% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 83.20% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 18.24% |
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21 and 7....people spend 21% of their time online and only 7% of ad spending is spent online....it has to grow.
How do you post a minimum threshold that's a range?
"So, the prediction is that Q1 in 2008 will meet or beat a 25%-40% increase in online ad revenues. Results should be out by the end of April."
Either you mean "the prediction is that Q1 in 2008 will meet or beat a 25% increase in online ad revenues." or this needs a whole bunch of clarification. If the former, then that's the way it should be written.
If each type of ad unit needs to beat the corresponding YOY 2006-2007 growth that should be specified. If there's some form of averaging across the ad unit types that should be specified.
Astute points, Bradley. We've changed it to read as 25% increase, which won't have any ill effects on anyone who has already placed bets. Thanks.
What data source will be used to judge this stock? Predictions with multiple data sources like this one should clearly identify the data source.
I noticed earlier today that there was a plunge against this prediction which made me think that maybe some news had broken somewhere or that someone had some inside info. At one point it was down by 32% but has recovered a bit and is now down only 18% on the day. All that that made me think it would be great if you could offer a market depth view of the betting - ie a list of the bets by sizes and the volume broken down by day. That would be useful.
I've read several articles that various sites have struggled with advertising revenue lately. Google is one example where they predict that ad revenue is still down even though they introduced a new method of collect ad revenue on their search engine. I read another article in Wired that made correlations between a weak economy and its impact on ad revenues too. I don't think the numbers are going to look very good.
attempt
@Can Koklu I couldn't read the FT article to which you posted a link when I tried last night. I notice that your post has now been edited to remove the reference.
What you were describing doesn't fit what little information I've been able to get elsewhere.
Here's an article from The Industry Standard (our hosts!)
http://www.thestandard.com/news/2008/04/15/google-march-paid-click-growt...
Which says that Google experienced 2% YOY growth in paid clicks. Unless the amount they're paid per click has jumped tremendously, which I find highly unlikely, they're going to be nowhere near 25% growth, much less the 50% you cited.
Through this site's news: Google revenue up 40% year over year. Shock to the world.
http://venturebeat.com/2008/04/17/paid-click-this-larry-and-sergey-are-r...
Everything I’ve read up to this point has shown a mild but definite deceleration of online advertising for Q1 compared to 2007, but still show overall increases. That being said, I haven’t seen a report from any reputable analyst group that covers *all* online advertising, and I'll personally be surprised if it is more than 25%. I think the community is right on this one.
I know something will be published by IAB. I’d want something like this, personally, to close this out without getting the community up in arms.
http://www.iab.net/about_the_iab/recent_press_releases/press_release_arc...
The severe downside here is that, at least last year, they didn’t issue the report until early June. =S
Not sure if there would be a better source than this that would come out earlier. I'm still looking.
I think it's going to be really, really close to 25%, but don't know from which side. I have seen an estimated growth of 23%, but that was based on analysis and expectation, not numbers.
I didn't get a chance to bet, but I'd be shocked if it isn't up 25%, given what I've seen with even 6 month old startups getting million dollar insertion orders.
Unfortunately, we'll have to wait until some official figures are released by a reputable source. Anyone who finds them first, post the source here by clicking on the Reply link next to my name. That way I'll get notified. If you find a good source before we do, and send me a note, I'll credit the first person with S$10,000 Standard Dollars.
It's not Q1 2008, but Q4 2007 was up YOY by 24%.
http://www.iab.net/about_the_iab/recent_press_releases/press_release_arc...
Take a look at TechTarget's Q1 results - "Total revenues for the first quarter increased by 30% to $23.9 million compared to $18.3 million for the comparable prior year quarter. Online revenues increased by 38% to $18.9 million."
Could be a good indicator of the overall health of the market.
Total 2007 is up 26% from 2006:
http://www.iab.net/about_the_iab/recent_press_releases/press_release_arc...
Combined with the Q4 YOY it suggests growth was slowing at the end of the year.
It pains me how long this data is taking to go public. Luckily, the wait should only be another week or so.
http://www.iab.net/about_the_iab/recent_press_releases/press_release_arc...
"The Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) today announced that Internet advertising revenues reached $5.8 billion for the first quarter of 2008. The 2008 first quarter revenues are an 18.2 percent increase over the same period in 2007, and represent the second highest quarter ever recorded, after Q4 2007’s $5.9 billion."
18.2%, this one fails.
@Bradley, nice find on the article. This is a done deal and judgement can now be made.
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