Submitted by The Standard08.07.2008
Thunderdome
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
Judgment on August 14, 2008: After an official press release from NBC, this prediction has closed early. According to the release, NBCOlympics.com surpased 20 million visits in merely 5 days - an incredible achievment. Judged at 100% - the community was correct. -- The Industry Standard
NBC has decided to pursue the Herculean effort of streaming the entire Beijing Olympics online.
As io9 puts it"NBC will be broadcasting Olympic events both live and tape delayed on several of the television networks they own, and will also provide on-demand video streams of events on the web. In total, they will present more than 3,600 hours of Olympic coverage. That's more Olympic programming in 2008 than the sum of all the hours of Olympic TV coverage ever."
Of those 3600 hours of coverage, 2,200 hours will be streamed live online at NBCOlympics.com using a custom video player using Microsoft’s Silverlight 2 platform.
While it is safe to assume most viewers will need to download and install the Silverlight browser software to view the video streams properly, the 2008 Olympics should be an absolute boon for NBC online coverage as well Microsoft’s Silverlight brand awareness.
This is a prediction that Compete.com will show NBCOlympics.com will tally over 20 million Visitors (in the drop-down referred to as “Visits – Monthly”) for the month of August, 2008. NBCOlympics.com received 1.2 million for the month of July, according to Compete.com. NOTE: There may be a delay in the Compete.com figures being released to the public. Judgment will be made when that time comes (usually 1-2 weeks).
Price History
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Aug 31 2008 | Current Consensus: | 97.34% | Total Bets: | 48 |
| Today's Change: | 3.64% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 97.34% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 18.24% |
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Another example of where first-mover advantage was HUGE.
Alright ... I confess... i am the 1st mover
Aug 07 2008 Bet in favor at 51% odds S$73,882.50
If only I had more $.
Someone dropped a lot more than S$73k. I wish we could have done a streaming prediction on this one, but there was no telling if/when NBC would release that data (Hulu data can make one a tad gun shy).
Well, I made 1st, 3rd and 4th bets on this one (someone else managed to squeeze in the 2nd bet) .... still .. a relatively small amount ($420K)
Aug 07 2008 Bet in favor at 68% odds S$149,983.66
Aug 07 2008 Bet in favor at 61% odds S$196,514.88
Aug 07 2008 Bet in favor at 51% odds S$73,882.50
This is an easy one. I wished I could have dropped at least $1M on this it. Before start of Olympic (July), it is already hitting nearly 1.2M. Since the metric is visit (rather than unique visits), each unique visitor will generate multiple visit counts on a daily basis. To hit the 20M mark, NBCOlympics.com only needed about 1M visits/day (which is almost a given).
As for the data, since it is based on compete.com numbers, it should be available last 1st week of September (I think).
Didn't you people mean to say MSNBC?
http://fakesteveballmer.blogspot.com
Wow, I go away for a day and watch what happened with this event... Wish I'd been here to take advantage. Down to 18% and then back up again.
@Bradley, I was rather surprised to see it dropped to 18% myself. So, I backed up my truck and took the opportunity to load up even more.
As it turns out, this is a pretty neat thing that NBC is doing. I can watch live streaming video of specific events or do VOD (video on demand). I have probably generated at least 100 visits in the last 4 days and will account for over 1000 visits by end of month.
BTW, the US win on the 4x100 free relay over the favorite France today was INCREDIBLE!!! A win by 8/100 of a second!!! What a comeback on the anchor leg! Check it out at http://www.nbcolympics.com/video/player.html?assetid=0811_hd_swb_hl_l019...
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/all-olympics-all-time---/story.asp...
According to Nielsen, we are now at approximately 8.9M unique visitors in 4 days!!!! That alone should easily translate to 20M visits already with 20 days to go.
http://tvbythenumbers.com/2008/08/13/nbc-continues-crushing-olympic-domi...
Source of metric: NBC
TRAFFIC CONTINUES TO SWELL ON NBCOLYMPICS.COM: Through five days NBCOlympics.com has easily surpassed the Athens Games in every metric:
VIDEO STREAMS: 17.7 million for Beijing, 2.2 million for ENTIRE Athens Games (+705%)
UNIQUE USERS: 21.1 million for Beijing, 11.1 million for ENTIRE Athens Games (+90%)
PAGE VIEWS: 373.9 million for Beijing, 229.9 million for ENTIRE Athens Games (+63%)
Since 1 unique visit accounts for at least 1 visit, after 5 days, the criteria has been met for favorable judgement.
@David: so what was your final gain on this one? With the first-mover advantage, plus being around for the 18% level (what was going on there?!??!!!!) it should have been a monster prediction for you.
@Bradley, trying my best to catch up with you but it seems to be more and more difficult :(
Below is full disclosure ....
I messed up on first bet (too little for a near sure bet but all my other $ are in other predictions).
Last 2 bets made when I "stumbled" on the NBC released metric.
Aug 14 2008 Judged at 100% S$3,915,400.00 <--- time to go shopping yet again :)
Aug 14 2008 Bet in favor at 97% odds S$249,979.86 <-- made when 21.1M metric found
Aug 14 2008 Bet in favor at 95% odds S$759,107.39 <-- made when 21.1M metric found
Aug 11 2008 Bet in favor at 77% odds S$399,968.10 <-- made when 8.9M metric found
Aug 08 2008 Bet in favor at 35% odds S$579,979.44 <--- this bet was made when it hit 18%
Aug 07 2008 Bet in favor at 68% odds S$149,983.66 <--- 4th bet of prediction
Aug 07 2008 Bet in favor at 61% odds S$196,514.88 <--- 3rd bet of prediction
Aug 07 2008 Bet in favor at 51% odds S$73,882.50 <--- 1st bet of prediction
Net: S$1,505,984.17 (my largest gain on a single bet thus far)
@Evan Kenty, sorry for your loss on this one (as you bet your shirt) but thanks for letting me back up my truck at 18%.
cool olimpic win us
http://www.evdenevenakliyatbul.com/
Final 5 days count .. nearly 25M uniques
Very nice. I came in later and smaller than you did. Still a net of $749,002.55. Thankfully could take advantage of what you left after your August 8th move (still wish I'd been online that day!).
Aug 14 2008 Judged at 100% S$2,498,700.00
Aug 14 2008 Bet in favor at 91% odds S$249,911.35
Aug 12 2008 Bet in favor at 93% odds S$199,957.40
Aug 12 2008 Bet in favor at 91% odds S$199,960.14
Aug 10 2008 Bet in favor at 68% odds S$199,990.76
Aug 09 2008 Bet in favor at 63% odds S$149,938.60
Aug 09 2008 Bet in favor at 51% odds S$399,973.86
Aug 07 2008 Bet in favor at 78% odds S$99,985.37
Aug 07 2008 Bet in favor at 74% odds S$249,979.97
@Bradley, ditto!. Seems like we got similar betting styles :). I would have gone a whole lot more when it bumped down to 18% but I had to make strategic cash outs since I had more than 100% networth in active bets. Still, a 62.5% gain in 7 days ain't bad.
Did you get in on your Xbox price cut prediction? When I logged on yesterday and found this prediction judged and that $ freed up, I saw your suggested Xbox pricing just came into play (0 bets, 50%). So, I went shopping :). Currently at 85%, there is still room for about a 15% ROI in about 3-4 weeks.
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