Submitted by Shiv Bhandari06.18.2008
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Betting closes on Dec 31 2008
Hitwise came out with its search market share numbers for May, 2008.
In the U.S., Google was up slightly to 68.3%. This is a prediction that Google will have at least 75% of the U.S. market share in any month of this year, according to Hitwise.
Current Community Consensus 24%Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Dec 31 2008 | Current Consensus: | 24.05% | Total Bets: | 39 |
| Today's Change: | -20.97% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 58.66% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 24.05% |
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Over the past year it's gone from 65.13% to 68.29%. There's no chance it hits 75% this year. Gaining 1% marketshare/month just isn't going to happen EVERY month, and that's what this would take.
@Bradley, I agree with you. This would be easy money but frozen money as the ROI is so far away.
It has 70% as of July 18.
http://www.marketingcharts.com/interactive/google-approaches-70-share-of...
69.17% up from 68.29% the previous month. So gained almost an entire 1% marketshare.
6 more months exactly as successful as this past one and it would finish the year at 74.45%.
Google is up 8% YOY. It would need to go up 8+% from here in 6 months for this prediction to be judged a success.
I still don't see it happening.
@Bradley, again I agree that this is not gonna happen.
Up to 70%:
http://weblogs.hitwise.com/heather-dougherty/2008/08/googles_share_of_us...
70.77% to be exact. With 5 months to go and an average pace of 1%, this one is going to be close with December being the most likely month to break 75% and judgement date around Jan 15, 2009.
Wonder how is HitWise different than Nielsen NetRating. The latter pegged Google at under 61%. http://www.netratings.com/pr/pr_080819_3.pdf
Also, comScore metric showed a little over 61%. http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/08/21/google-takes-us-search-market-share...
IDC hs solid figures showing that only about a third of the searches on the Web go through ANY of the search engines. Increasingly, they go directly to the specialized sites such as Amazon, eBay, etc. In addition, Baidu, last time I checked, gets more queries than Google/Yahoo/Live combined. So, if this is about worldwide searches, then the question is what percentage of 35-40% of searches worldwide go through Google. If it's not about worldwide searches, with search volume growing faster outside North America than inside it, perhaps we need to rephrase the question?
--Sue Feldman, IDC
Hi Sue,
This prediction is all about the US market and using Hitwise's figures. I'd love it if you suggested a prediction for us basing the judgment on an IDC report. Is there something relevant that we can look at for the end of 2008? How often are the IDC figures updated?
There is a HUGE conception in this country that Google owns 70% of search. Walt Mossberg of the Wall Street Journal just used those exact figures on stage at DEMOfall08.
August figure is out at 71.01%, up from 70.77%, so only a bit of growth.
September metric is out at 71.2%.
October metric is out at 71.7%
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