Submitted by David Kuan06.20.2008
Thunderdome
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
Judgment on September 2, 2008: While EA and Take-Twi are still in confidential talks, the requirements of this prediction were not met by the date required - which the community correctly predicted. Judged at 0%. -- The Industry Standard
Original prediction: The takeover of Take-Two Interactive by Electronic Arts (EA) has gotten the headlines for a few months now.
The latest was that Take-Two let expire EA's $2B offer on June 16th, although Take-Two's mixed signals has kept things interesting. The anticipated astronomical sales of GTA IV shot up Take-Two's stock by over $10 in March, while Take-Two's admission of its weak sports division has kept speculation about the two companies continuous.
EA has changed the deadline four times now, with the current offer set to expire on July 18, 2008 (although that could change again).
According to playTM, EA has agreed to not push the takeover for at least 45 days to allow the FTC to investigate this deal. The expectation is that FTC will find no fault on the deal.
This is a prediction that EA will announce a successful takeover bid of Take-Two by end of August, 2008.
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Aug 31 2008 | Current Consensus: | 1.63% | Total Bets: | 39 |
| Today's Change: | 0% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 48.75% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 1.63% |
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(putting on my David Kuan hat)
Bring It On, EA: Take Two
Haha.. I wouldn't be surprised if David is secretly the managing editor of TIS ;)
@Daniel/Shiv, are you saying I am a excessive compulsive TIS commenter? This was my action on this prediction ...
Jun 27 2008 Cash out at 49% odds S$14,965.00
Jun 20 2008 Bet against at 49% odds S$14,965.00
If only I had held on to the bet, I would be in-the-money now but alas I can't really complain much. I took that $ and made at least 3 folds on other predictions in the last couple of weeks :).
I am tired. With Bradley so far ahead and Daniel pushing ahead of me, maybe I should take a break and come back when I am prize-eligible again ......... on second thought .. this is quite fun :)
@David - easy come easy go. There's a point at around $2 million where people start getting sloppy. It might be because you can no longer get a good return on dumping 50% of your holdings into easy money or it might just be bad luck, but people (other than Bradley) don't last long in the top 5.
Prior to the last day or two I'd pretty much broken even on the month (still a win/loss ratio of about 3 or 4 to 1 - it's just that losses hurt a lot more), and my ride from 5th place to 2nd (prior to you) had been solely on people making mistakes. I wouldn't swear to an exact number, but I believe Kevin Railsback broke $10 million not too long ago. And you're down 2-300K on the last few days? Don't you get sloppy.
@Daniel, for the month of July, I am up from $670K to $2.3M. I might be a bit more aggressive than I should be but that might be the only way to catch up to Bradley and keep others from #2 spot :) As for the 2-300K, Seems like it fluctuated back up again. It is fluctuating due to one bet which I strongly believe I had bet correctly. Then again, I might be getting sloppy as you have said. We'll see how long I stay in Top 5.
@David - you are definitely a different kind of player. Mostly all I do is tread water on 10 minutes a day (today is an exception), and it looks like I'll round at the day at 4th.
I don't think I ever figured out what the prediction was, but at one point Bradley had what must have been the largest bet this site has ever recorded in a prediction that swung very close to him losing everything. I figured that was my only chance at catching up, but I was a lot further behind then. Ha. Do I sound like the old man telling stories around a campfire?
I think Kevin peaked around S$3.6million a few weeks ago.
I don't think I've had a win-or-go-home bet since early on (a week or so in). Lots of large ones, of course.
Biggest win so far was S$2,153,590.73 profit (on bets totaling $1,375,000) on "Q1 Online Ad Revenues up YOY from 2007". Lots of money locked up for a couple of months on that one.
Not sure which bet could have looked like I was all-in. Might have been some time when I had multiple large positions in volitile predictions?
@Daniel/Bradley, the FCC XM/Sirius was a > 90% bet for me ($2,357,718.60) yet the gain ($1,436,664.36) still pales by comparison to Bradleys win. Even so, the bet was not a guaranteed win due to the time factor. I am once again 90% of networth in predictions .. but spread out into "lucky" 13 instead of 1.
As for this prediction, FTC is still working it and EA can't resume acquisition effort until FTC is done. Currently targeting last week of August as the only window available for this prediction. Also, EA has only thus far acquired 15% of Take Two shares in its extended offer. Looks like easy money with a little over 1 month ROI.
FTC just OK'd the merger (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121924541370056803.html?mod=googlenews_w...). I have the strangest hunch that the decision to not extend the offer again is to make way for a new deal. Given the friendly nature of the discussion, a deal can still be struck with no further obstacles by end of month. The risk/reward makes this an attractive FOR bet.
I might have agreed with you a few weeks ago, but since Labor Day weekend approaches. . .
@Eric, I have resigned to the fact that there will be no shock-news released before the Labor Day weekend. I have put forth a ancilliary prediction that a deal will happen in September though. Also, check out the new suggestion about Temco acquisition. It would make for an interesting play.
Talks officially ended:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=aumGA5BMM_TQ&refer=h...
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