Submitted by The Standard02.27.2008
Thunderdome
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
Judgment: Based on Apple's offiicial press release today, which leverages NPD Group data, "iTunes is the number one music retailer in the US* and features the largest music catalog with over eight million songs." This event has been judged favorably, and paid out at S$100. -- The Industry Standard
Original Prediction:
Without a single physical product being sold, iTunes is poised to become the largest domestic music retailer.
According to news.com, "The NPD Group issued a report Tuesday that said Apple had outpaced Best Buy and Target to become the No. 2 U.S. music retailer."
Interestingly, NPD also reported that, "Overall consumer music acquisition increased by 6 percent in 2007, but average annual per-capita music spending fell by 10 percent " NPD is predicting that Apple will catch Wal-Mart some time this year.
This is a prediction that Apple's iTunes will become the top music retailer before the end of 2008.
Price History
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Dec 31 2008 | Current Consensus: | 95.26% | Total Bets: | 82 |
| Today's Change: | 7.72% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 95.26% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 48.75% |
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Ding ding ding!
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20080402-apple-passes-wal-mart-now-...
According to Wired via Ars Technica via an internal Apple e-mail, iTunes was the #1 retailer for a couple of weeks in January (thanks to gift card redemptions) then fell back to second place behind Walmart. So, it displaced Walmart very briefly, but is not currently the #1 retailer. One would think that in order for this to be judged favorably, the "spirit" of the prediction, thus the trend, would be more long lasting than a two week stint. No?
The criteria should have been tighter on this. Maybe it should say "for at least two consecutive months". Anyone? I'm leaning towards waiting for a more verifiable source than an internal corporate e-mail, regardless.
I think that something better than a leaked Apple email should be required.
With the way it's written, the forthcoming NPD report, once it's been published, should qualify. Assuming, of course, that it says what Apple says it says (extraordinarily likely).
For the record I have no position in this prop. That might change at some point in the future, but at least for now I have no money on it either way.
What if it were changed to "iTunes to be largest music retailer in U.S. at the end of the year" seeing as that's when the prediction closes.
@Shiv: That would materially change the prediction in a manner unfair to those who have already played.
What would it take to get this to close? Apple has publicly confirmed that they were the #1 music retailer in January and February, based on NPD numbers. This is no longer a case merely of leaked but unconfirmed emails.
iTunes recently passed five billion songs sold.
http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2008/06/19itunes.html
full disclosure: I now have a position on this prediction.
I guess that's the answer... :)
It just takes making sure the mods have full information. I'd been assuming that the Apple press releases weren't being considered sufficient.
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