Surprise! Web ads aren't immune from the credit crisis

Jordan Golson — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 10:37:19 -0700

Numerous analysts have been slashing their online ad forecasts in the wake of the market bloodbath. Unsurprisingly, market conditions will affect things, but at least there is still growth. Wachovia (resist the urge to snicker) estimates ad spending online will grow by 10% next year rather than a previously estimated 15 percent. That may sound bad, but it's better than magazine and newspaper advertising, which Wachovia predicts will actually shrink.

Lehman/Barclays dropped its 2008 US ad estimate from 23.4% growth to 16.9 percent. Growing still, but $3 billion less than previously predicted. On top of forecasts of overall growth slowing, UBS analysts anticipated revenue estimates for Google, Yahoo and ValueClick by 4%, 9.1% and 19.3% respectively.

"We see no business model based on advertising or consumer spending that will be immune to a downturn," said UBS analyst Ben Schachter.

It's time to hunker down. The hurricane is coming.

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Surprise! Web ads aren't immune from the credit crisis