The Industry Standard - Sprint fails July 26 deadline for vacating spectrum - Comments

Awesome ideas, guys. By the

Eric Hill812251 — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 21:46:42 -0700

Awesome ideas, guys. By the way - behold: http://www.thestandard.com/blog

Finally!

@Bradley., the reason why I

David Kuan — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 13:06:39 -0700

@Bradley., the reason why I proposed the trending is because I dont track my results carefully either. The only reason I am remembering these recent numbers is post-Kindle win and to guesstimate what it would take to catch up with you :). After August, I think the numbers will become a blur to me.

An extension to your multi-member trending, would be nice to be able to do so within one's connection (at least). Think feature recommendation should be an item in the planned forum (with ability for members to vote).

"BTW, it would be nice to be

Bradley Baker — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 12:14:32 -0700

"BTW, it would be nice to be able to see the trending of one's networth over time (monthly at least)."

Seconded.

Especially since I don't bother to track my results as carefully as David appears to track his.

Even better if we could drop in 2-5 names and have them charted on the same graph. But now I'm just getting feature-greedy.

@Eric, I completely

David Kuan — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 20:41:36 -0700

@Eric, I completely understand as I was making the statement in jest. Agree that losing Shiv would be a loss to TIS. I have no doubt that Shiv will make a comeback. I foresee Shiv being one of the monthly winners in the immediate TIS future. I have absolutely no prob with adjustment to Shiv acct as needed :).

I also concur on the fact that as networth gets higher, the harder it is to turn in a high % gain performance. The maximium bet amounts can wreck havoc to ones betting strategy. For the month of August, I am pushing a paltry 75% ($4M->$7M). That is a far cry from my July performance of approx 500% ($6.6K -> $4M). I think I am haeding into a "betting funk". BTW, it would be nice to be able to see the trending of one's networth over time (monthly at least).

I'll tough it out, till

Shiv Bhandari — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 20:14:14 -0700

I'll tough it out, till loans is a feature available to all. But there's got to be an interest rate charged on the loan- at least 25%. I've been traveling for a while now (holiday!), so I wouldn't be able to use it much anyway. In fact that's why I bet how I did - putting my cash in a risky autopilot. I couldn't see any other way, seeing as a lot of gains are made due to the first-mover advantage (which is why I'm all for non-50% starting odds). Oh well.. prediction: I'll have a million by the end of the year :)

@David, I'd rather give

Eric Hill812251 — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 19:30:10 -0700

@David, I'd rather give @Shiv S$100,000 than run the risk of him trying to start over with a mere S$25 to his name (get frustrated and quit), or starting a totally new account (which would wipe out all of his history and contributions). We're talking about this problem quite a lot: How to work with players who take a huge risk but wipe themselves out. We don't want them to stop playing or create new user accounts - their behavior evens out in the market, but is obviously a fun part of the game, too.

Pulling some money from the bank is the best option. I mentioned to you guys in the past about resetting PM (prediction market) accounts at the end of each month/quarter, etc. I'm not a big fan of that idea, personally, but there are a lot of advantages to it. In a case like @Shiv, though, I don't want to leave him out in the cold. He's too damned good. ;)

Key for me, however, is how to do that algorithmically in the future. Right now, the only way I can do this is through an (easy) manual process. I'd rather create a game rule that does it automatically in the future.

Incidentally, @David, you outperformed Bradley by a significant distance last month in terms of percentage gain. The bigger Bradley's savings grow, the harder it is for him to spend it (or the more conservative one becomes, which is an interesting phenomenon, even with play money, although Bradley is incredibly active).

P.S.
The Team Blog was going to launch today, but there was 1 nagging (sigh) IE6 issue that needs to be resolved. Expect it in the a.m. PT Thursday. Thanks!

@Eric, loans feature eh? Can

David Kuan — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 14:38:11 -0700

@Eric, loans feature eh? Can I borrow a few millions? I am constantly over betting and running low on $. That might be the only way I can ever catch up to our supreme leader Bradley.

@Shiv - absolutely. Loans

Eric Hill812251 — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 13:58:02 -0700

@Shiv - absolutely. Loans are completely feasible. I'm going to give you S$100,000. Later, I can deduct it (in 2-4 weeks) after you've had a chance to grow a bit. Sound good? Or, would you rather tough it out?

That's nice of you to offer,

Shiv Bhandari — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 13:50:28 -0700

That's nice of you to offer, but I'll do it the hard way. Besides, resetting will make risks meaningless. Thanks anyway. You could consider loans, though.

Yeah .. Team Blog! Kudos!

David Kuan — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 10:10:09 -0700

Yeah .. Team Blog! Kudos!

@Shiv, if you need/want an

Eric Hill812251 — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 09:10:40 -0700

@Shiv, if you need/want an infusion of funds, let me know. We can reset accounts, etc., too. We'll be launching the Team Blog later today. We can discuss things over there, if you prefer, or you can reach me at eric [at] thestandard.

@Shiv - incidentally, what

Eric Hill812251 — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 19:52:21 -0700

@Shiv - incidentally, what is your personal thought process in terms of how you're betting on this prediction (that was hard to say without telling the whole world how you're betting on this one). I've seen your history, and I'm a bit baffled.

@Eric et al, I am in

David Kuan — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 16:22:33 -0700

@Eric et al, I am in agreement that the verbiage and title of the prediction could have been better. I am also open to TIS making the ultimate decision one way or another. I can only state the original intention of the suggestion.

As for the Kindle, my original suggestion did not include a redesign as part of the criteria. I am in agreement that the verbiage and title of the Kindle prediction when made playable could have been improved.

If there is confusion about

Kevin Railsback173773 — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 16:13:36 -0700

If there is confusion about whether the 3 listed criteria happen, then this will have to be judged based on the fact that they did not meet the deadline.

In the prediction it states: "This is a prediction that Sprint will fail to meet the July 26 deadline for vacating the 800Mhz spectrum." It's obvious that Sprint has failed to meet that July 26th deadline, so in my opinion this should be judged favorably.

If there is still uncertainty as to whether they're still using the spectrum (which I'm pretty sure they are, since they don't have to vacate until someone needs to use it) then I think it's fair to wait until the betting closes before judgment is made.

I think, overall, Bradley

Eric Hill812251 — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 16:00:50 -0700

I think, overall, Bradley has the most compelling argument here, frankly. According to the criteria (and, obviously the title), #1 appears to have been met already. That being said, technically Sprint didn't publicly request the delay nor did the FCC make an official announcement.

So, you see, the prediction titles are the most problematic aspect of most predictions as you all already know. If a title is taken literally, as a criteria (which happens to many people) but the fine print is incredibly specific (which most people demand) there can occasionally be a disconnect. Then, disagreements begin, like in this case.

What we want to have happen is an event to be predicted, where the community bets in favor or against. In a case like this, when confusion seems to be based more off of the technical parameters of the language more than the actual event, we have a couple of options.

1) I can make a judgment call (and, right now I believe - because of the title - that this already occurred).
2) I can try to "kill" the prediction, and pay both sides S$50. No winners, no losers - sort of. It's not a perfect system, really, but kind of meets everything half way.

It's not an easy call. I am dealing with the same issue with the Kindle prediction right now.

Sprint fails July 26 deadline for vacating spectrum

David Kuan — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 10:10:52 -0700

Early Judgment: A filing by Sprint has been surfaced on the FCC website by TIS member Bradley Baker. The filing details which portions haven't yet been rebanded. This fulfills criteria 2 as set by the prediction, "Sprint acknowledges it has failed to meet the FCC imposed deadline by end of August 2008." Sprint is continuing to use the spectrum until all of the incumbant licensees are retuned. "Sprint Nextel remains committed to completing this important initiative; however, as the information contained herein demonstrates, Sprint Nextel cannot complete 800 MHz band reconfiguration until all affected incumbent licensees complete their individual retuning activities." Judged at 100%. -- The Industry Standard

Sprint Nextel Corp was recently granted a spectrum swap with a deadline to vacate the 800Mhz spectrum by June 26, 2008.

As reported by Peter Kaplan of Reuters:

"Sprint is required to vacate the spectrum as part of a larger FCC plan to swap spectrum with public-safety agencies in the 800 megahertz band, a move aimed at minimizing interference between wireless service and public-safety users."

Sprint filed a request to the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) for a deadline extension.

On Friday, June 20, 2008, the FCC granted Sprint a one month reprieve by extending the deadline to July 26, 2008.

This is a prediction that Sprint will fail to meet the July 26 deadline for vacating the 800Mhz spectrum. A favorable judgement will be made if one of the following occurs:

1. The FCC makes an official announcement of Sprint's failure by end of August 2008.
2. Sprint acknowledges it has failed to meet the FCC imposed deadline by end of August 2008.
3. Another deadline extension is publicly requested by Sprint on or before July 26, 2008.