The Industry Standard - RIM shares hit $180 - Comments

RIMM ended 2008 at $40.58.

David Kuan — Fri, 02 Jan 2009 05:28:17 -0800

RIMM ended 2008 at $40.58. Unfavorable judgment can now be rendered.

Correction ... it is down

David Kuan — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 11:48:01 -0700

Correction ... it is down over 11% today to $62/sh now.

Poor RIIMM. The market just

David Kuan — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 08:26:17 -0700

Poor RIIMM. The market just not doing it any favors. Down nearly 7% again to about $66/sh. Unless it is has highly successful anti-cancer vaccine that is about to be approved by FDA, a miracle cannot help RIMM reach $180. This is a guaranteed bet with a 3 months ROI (shorter if RIMM gets delisted or folds).

I think RIM will need an

Eric Hill812251 — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 09:28:29 -0700

I think RIM will need an utter miracle for this stock to meet the requirements of this prediction.

Thanks for catching that,

Eric Hill812251 — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 09:27:37 -0700

Thanks for catching that, David. Fixed.

@TIS, why is the betting

David Kuan — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 09:25:19 -0700

@TIS, why is the betting closed on 12/1 if judgment date is 12/31? That is a long time for bets to be frozen.

RIMM plunged down today to

David Kuan — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 09:18:51 -0700

RIMM plunged down today to about $72/sh today following a weak forecast. There is absolutely NO WAY for RIMM to break $180 by judgment date.

RIMM continues the slide.

David Kuan — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 09:35:50 -0700

RIMM continues the slide. Down to below $100 today. Seriously doubt it can gain 80% in under 3 months as more "iPhone killers" debuts for the holiday shopping season.

@David: Thanks! I'm new

David Stevens — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 16:57:04 -0700

@David: Thanks! I'm new here. Your interpretation was how I took the site's own Prediction -- about three minutes before I bet S$5,000 precious newbie bucks Against -- so I am indeed happy to enjoy the benefit of a strike price 4% lower.

Still, it is perhaps my duty to point out that analyst Peter Misek (who is surely a smarter fellow than I am) expressed his cited target price in Cdn$.

It's bad enough to let others bet against *me*. While I willingly accept play money from *all*, I'd not want any *one* individual to feel that I did so other than as part of a "perfect information" game. ;-)

On a related note, I interpreted "fiscal year" to be a misstatement of "calendar year," as what matters here is merely a High market price quotation, rather than a matter of closing the accounting books or reporting on them.

@David, the spirit in which

David Kuan — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 06:28:17 -0700

@David, the spirit in which this prediciton was written is based on US dollar on the Nasdaq (in case anyone else is wondering).

"we were even pondering

David Stevens — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 02:10:45 -0700

"we were even pondering putting forth a prediction that the stock would fall to as low as $125 on the Nasdaq": At least that would have unambiguously *implied* US dollars, the kind favored by NASDAQ.

The current proposition, as written, is ambiguous: After all, RIM is a Canadian company, and its home is the Toronto Stock Exchange .. which prefers to do business in Canadian dollars. The difference is currently on the order of five percent in favor of US dollar. (US$180 was about Cdn$187.85 last week).

RIM shares hit $180

The Standard — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 21:01:05 -0700

Judgment on January 5, 2008: This did not occur by the end of 2008, by a long shot, which the community correctly predicted. -- The Industry Standard

Original prediction: Well, we saw RIM stock fell more than 12% this week on a disappointing profit outlook for BlackBerries. It wasn’t exactly a surprise – check out this quote from a WSJ article before the earnings announcement:

“With shares of Research in Motion up 150% over the past year, investors are saying there is almost nothing that can trip up the fast-growing BlackBerry maker. The problem with that: RIM's business is getting riskier every quarter.”

It's funny, we were even pondering putting forth a prediction that the stock would fall to as low as $125 on the Nasdaq and we would have been close – it got as far as $125.33. It’s also amazing what a penny short will do to a company these days!

Nonetheless, CEO Jim Balsillie was clearly feeling bullish on the earnings call, as are some industry analysts, in particular with the coming arrival of the Blackberry Bold, and Google’s recent Android delay announcements. Canaccord Adams analyst Peter Misek has set a target of $225, positing that Q2 investments will ultimately pay off in the long term.

This is a prediction that shares of RIM will reach at least $180 at some point before the end of the fiscal year. That is, the high between now and December 31, 2008 must have been at least $180. We’ll close betting on December 1.