The Industry Standard - Oil prices spike to $150 a barrel by July 4 - Comments

Well, it was somewhat close.

David Kuan — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 17:16:41 -0700

Well, it was somewhat close. NYMEX crude closed a little over $145 (about $5 shy o the target). Since NYMEX is closed on July 4, this is a done deal. Congrats to the community.

@Eric, it could still happen

David Kuan — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 16:52:39 -0700

@Eric, it could still happen although it is not probable for it to go up by $6.44 in one day. NYMEX is open on July 3 but not July 4. Markets elsewhere are open on July 4. However, these trades won't be recorded at NYMEX until July 7. So, in accordance to the prediction, there is only 1 day left.

Disclosure: I no longer have a position on this as I do not think it is worth risking 100% betting capital for a potential 5% additional winnings.

Wow, this could still

Eric Hill812251 — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 15:48:43 -0700

Wow, this could still happen. Are the markets open this Friday, July 4th?

Crude closed at $143.57

David Kuan — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 15:04:43 -0700

Crude closed at $143.57 after peaking at $144.13

WTH? Now it just swung back

David Kuan — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 18:36:52 -0700

WTH? Now it just swung back 60%!

Correction ... it is a 60%

David Kuan — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 17:29:52 -0700

Correction ... it is a 60% swing!

40% increase? Someone is

David Kuan — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 17:11:10 -0700

40% increase? Someone is sniping this with lots of $.

@Eric, I meant the number of

David Kuan — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 12:45:41 -0700

@Eric, I meant the number of days which NYMEX is open for trading (prediction is using closing price on NYMEX). After today, there will only be 4 days (June 30, Jul 1-3). July 4th trading elsewhere will not be reflected on NYMEX until Jul 7 (after judgement day). With the current volatility in the currency market, a $7 spike over 4 days is not improbable.

I suspect a significant portion of bets are cashed out but the way the prediction is set up .. judgement day can be any day any time but no later than July 5. What happens if oil price breaks the $150 barrier at NYMEX closing before July 5 but judgement has not been made and bets against are cashed out? Can the gain/loss be adjusted?

Actually, @David, there is

Eric Hill812251 — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 11:29:19 -0700

Actually, @David, there is one week to go, not 4 days. It will be interesting to see if folks start to cash out next week!

Oil futures hit a record

Eric Hill812251 — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 11:27:22 -0700

Oil futures hit a record high of $143 today.

I think the possibility of

Bradley Tinney — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 07:40:23 -0700

I think the possibility of this closing at or above $150 in the next few days is unlikely. The only way that will happen is a spike like the one that sparked the prediction itself.

This is getting a little too

David Kuan — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 07:02:08 -0700

This is getting a little too close for comfort. Crude broke $142 today on weakness of US dollars. Word on the street is that Fed's inaction on interest rate opens up potential US dollar swings if European Fed counterpart announces rate hike. Currency is one of those that is subject to mass speculation and commodity pricing is directly related to it..

At this point, it is not a question of whether it will break $150 mark but when. 4 more days to go ... who has the guts to hold their bets until judgement?

As for next administration, energy issue will be up there with the economy issue. Any economists out there that can comment on macroeconomic impacts of energy and the impacts to the US economy?

Agreed. Although, watching

Eric Hill812251 — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 20:52:50 -0700

Agreed. Although, watching the Dow shed over 350 points today as oil surged, like you said, to $140, doesn't seem to bode well for the near-term.

As energy prices rise today, we'll see the real impact about six months from now as the relative inflation hits.

The next administration is absolutely "challenged", to say the least.

Crude oil broke $140 at

David Kuan — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 12:09:24 -0700

Crude oil broke $140 at NYMEX So much volatility. There is sufficient supply out there (with increased production by Arab and increased inventoried stockpile in US), the pending bill to limit futures speculation (which will have an adverse effect on oil future prices), and 5 remaining trading days to July 4 (NYMEX is closed on July 4), I really don't see the price breaking $150 except if the US currency continues to devalue making commodity prices more expensive.

Oil prices tumble as US

David Kuan — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 13:06:08 -0700

Oil prices tumble as US stocks rise

Oil prices spike to $150 a barrel by July 4

The Standard — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 16:16:41 -0700

Judgment on July 4, 2008:

Well, it was a really close call. Oil crude futures surged to just over $145/bbl on July 3rd, 2008. The community correctly predicted that oil would not be at $150/bbl by July 4. Judged at S$0. --The Industry Standard

Original prediction:

Oil prices have been on a roller-coaster ride this year, sensitive to all kinds of events, ranging from a weak US dollar to a single comment made by a politician to a prediction by investment bank Morgan Stanley.

As of Friday, June 6, 2008, oil catapulted to $138 a barrel sending shivers through Wall Street as the Dow shed nearly 400 points.

Obviously, the bad news has spooked markets and consumer confidence while raising inflation fears.

To be clear, this is a prediction that the price of a barrel of crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange will close at or above $150 between June 9, 2008, and July 4, 2008.

Judgment will occur on July 5, 2008, or earlier depending on events tied to this prediction.