The Industry Standard - iTunes goes DRM-free by the end of the year - Comments

@eric The link directly to

Kevin Railsback173773 — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 22:52:47 -0700

@eric The link directly to an Apple press release from 10/17/2007 specifically states there were more than 2M iTunes Plus (ie DRM-free) tracks at that time.

http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2007/10/17itunes.html

This shouldn't actually have ever been a prediction, but since it is, it should be judged and closed.

Kevin

I meant ... "Judge Early"

David Kuan — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 15:38:57 -0700

I meant ... "Judge Early" instead of "Predict Early".

@Bradley, can you comment on

David Kuan — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 15:14:28 -0700

@Bradley, can you comment on your prediction here?

@Eric, sources are in previous comments and submitted URLs in Predict Early points to > 1M DRM-free songs in iTunes Plus.

Bradley Baker created this

Eric Hill812251 — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 12:55:33 -0700

Bradley Baker created this prediction. Where do you source your 1,000,000+ DRM-free music data?

@TIS, what is keeping this

David Kuan — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 12:01:51 -0700

@TIS, what is keeping this prediction from being judged? I have had prediction $ locked in this for nearly 1 month now.

@Kevin, exactly. That was

David Kuan — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 16:46:06 -0700

@Kevin, exactly. That was why I said "was over before it even started". This won't be the first one like that. Another one that was moot prediction is http://www.thestandard.com/predictions/cafescribe-acquired-october-2009.

The criteria for judgment is very clear ... " It will be judged either when iTunes starts offering 1,000,000+ DRM-free music downloads or soon after the end of the year, whichever comes first.". I am estimating nearly 4M DRM-free songs at this time as well.

Seriously - there has been a

Kevin Railsback173773 — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 08:11:25 -0700

Seriously - there has been a significant amount of DRM-free music on iTunes for a long time now. I'm just now looking at the details of this prediction - from the headline I assumed it meant all DRM-free, since they've had so much DRM-free for so long now.

There are well over 1M iTunes Plus tracks back in 2007, probably closer to 4M now.

@TIS, is the DRM-free song

David Kuan — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 12:27:31 -0700

@TIS, is the DRM-free song library quantity on ITunes being calculated? Per various articles, the 1M+ mark has been surpassed to satisfy judgment criteria.

This prediction was over

David Kuan — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 12:43:48 -0700

This prediction was over before it even started. Apple's iTunes Plus initially offered EMI tracks DRM-free back in September 2007 but no other major labels followed suit. Then, a month later, Apple dropped iTunes Plus rate to 99 cents and added independent labels to bring in additional 2M DRM-free tracks. As indicated by the official press release by Apple (http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2007/10/17itunes.html), iTunes Plus offers over 2M tracks DRM-free which satisfied the judgment criteria of 1M+.

A more recent metric can be found in Sept 10 Washington Post article (http://twp.com/detail.jsp?key=276824&rc=robpeg_tech&p=0#___1__) where iTunes Plus now has over 4M (approx half of its overall 8.5M catalog of tracks.

iTunes goes DRM-free by the end of the year

Bradley Baker — Wed, 04 Jun 2008 10:08:07 -0700

Following Napster's lead, Apple will start offering DRM-free music through iTunes by the end of 2008 in a more widespread strategy.

This prediction will be judged as a success if iTunes offers a significant number of DRM-free tracks (significant being defined as 1,000,000 or more). The pricing structure may differ from that of tracks with DRM. Non-music offerings (movies, TV, etc.) with or without DRM have no bearing on this prediction.

An announcement of future availability is not sufficient for a successful judgement of this prediction, the songs must be actually available.

Note that Apple and iTunes already offer SOME DRM-free music. Songs from EMI are available for $1.29/song in a DRM-free format and have been for about a year.

This prediction is set to close on December 21st. It will be judged either when iTunes starts offering 1,000,000+ DRM-free music downloads or soon after the end of the year, whichever comes first.

(Ed. Note: If DRM-free music is indeed made available on iTunes in a major way, judgement may be slightly delayed until the DRM-free song libraries' quantities are calculated.)

UPDATE: Apple press release showing iTunes has over 2M DRM-free tracks. Prediction closed, judged at 100%.