The Industry Standard - Facebook's 2008 growth less than 15%? - Comments

In case anyone cares, the

Bradley Baker — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 18:00:36 -0700

In case anyone cares, the September number was announced at 41,416,000.

@ Eric: I would have

Bradley Baker — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 17:57:57 -0700

@ Eric:
I would have absolutely no concern with that decision in the absence of guidance (stipulated the guidance was somewhat qualified). Given that there WAS an indication, I'm not thrilled that it wasn't followed. Given the qualification made at the time I'm okay with it not being followed, just not thrilled. Especially given an explicit request for clarification made by David in August.

Removing the player hat for a moment, I was slightly surprised by the interpretation given in your July 23 post. That said, it fit how many things were being handled to adjust to the spirit of the predictions. Going off of December's data is all I would have expected other than because of that post up until the moment I saw your October 10th message.

Of note, the reference to "overall number for 2008" in your most recent post is of concern. That's absolutely NOT what's mentioned in the prediction text and would be a significant change. Even if that number is also up 15%+ vs. Dec 2007 I would be extraordinarily unhappy if it were to be used. I assume that's not what you intended.

Would I like to free up the couple of million (or whatever it's at right now, I haven't checked) that I have locked up now rather than wait nearly another 3 months? Absolutely. Will it actually affect my game play or enjoyment if that doesn't happen? Certainly not significantly and probably not at all.

OK, @Bradley. I hear you.

Eric Hill812251 — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 11:39:00 -0700

OK, @Bradley. I hear you. Now, take your player hat off for a second and put your judge hat on. Pretend you're sitting there in a black robe, gavel in hand. Quite a few people are attached to this event. Pretend - just pretend - that the overall number for 2008 doesn't break 15%, but we judge it early based on a single month (or two).

Imagine the pitchforks and torches being lit. The chanting of an angry mob outside the doors.

With @Larry Kubal being silent on his intentions, I'm going to piss someone off no matter how this is ruled.

If, however, I sit here and wait until the December number is announced, I can guarantee that I make the right decision. I hate to wait, especially since FB's numbers will likely only increase, but markets aren't always meant for day trading. Heck - look at the nightmare the casino known as Wall Street has created.

@Eric: Mmmm, I haven't been

Bradley Baker — Sat, 25 Oct 2008 18:11:22 -0700

@Eric: Mmmm, I haven't been paying attention very closely to this one.

A wise man said "If Facebook broke that milestone in July, for example, I would likely close this as having occurred."

While you certainly didn't say you WOULD close it early, this is at least as good an indication as you've previously given on reasons for early judgment.

Unlike David I do have a position (significant) on this prediction.

@Eric, seems reasonable to

David Kuan — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 11:42:43 -0700

@Eric, seems reasonable to me. Look at comment #3, #4 and #5 though. BTW, I do not have any active bets on this one.

Actually, guys, technically

Eric Hill812251 — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 10:47:43 -0700

Actually, guys, technically speaking... "The bet is that Facebook's December 2008 comScore number will be less than 39.9 million uniques."

How can we possibly close this prediction if December has yet to arrive? What if their numbers totally meet the prediction as Larry wrote it for the month of December? It reads, literally, as a prediction attached to December, 2008, not anything else.

It is rather odd that this

David Kuan — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 12:09:16 -0700

It is rather odd that this prediction is still not judged given the metric met judgment criteria.

http://www.comscore.com/press

Bradley Baker — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 20:25:29 -0700

http://www.comscore.com/press/release.asp?press=2472

Facebook hit 40,959,000 US visitors in August.

Upon re-read, the posted

David Kuan — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 14:10:37 -0700

Upon re-read, the posted comScore article shows 49M numbers for North America rather than US. The Venture Beat article (http://venturebeat.com/2008/08/13/comscore-googles-still-the-king-buying...) shows that the US number came in at 39.1M which does not yet meet the judgement criteria. Looks like another month of ROI on this one before the August metric is released by comScore.

This is press release from

David Kuan — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 09:14:33 -0700

This is press release from comScore .... http://www.comscore.com/press/release.asp?press=2396

Unique visitor in US has hit

David Kuan — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 06:45:12 -0700

Unique visitor in US has hit 49M

Facebook has grown by a stupendous 300 per cent in Europe over the last year – according to the latest ComScore statistics – and could soon have outgrown its US equivalent.

With the social networking site working hard on making itself more culturally relevant in non-US markets, the dividends appear to be huge, with a not-inconsiderable 38 per cent growth in the US – still its largest market – overshadowed by some stunning growth rates from the rest of the world.

Europe's 303 per cent growth saw it grow from an audience of 8 million unique visitors to 35 million, only 14 million behind the US total.

ConnectU lost the court

David Kuan — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 06:40:04 -0700

ConnectU lost the court appeal. ConnectU can now be assiimilated into Facebook.

@TIS, more clarification ...

David Kuan — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 14:31:47 -0700

@TIS, more clarification ... the prediction says "The bet is that Facebook's December 2008 comScore number will be less than 39.9 million uniques.", Note the keyword here is "LESS THAN".

So, if it breaks 39.9M uniques between now and end of 2008, an unfavorable judgement shall be made? Can a case be made that Facebook may begin to losing uniques after hitting a peak above 39.9M (let's say late October) and ended up with less than 39.9M at end of 2008?

Can TIS add any clarification to the prediction verbiage to help improve the prediction verbiage?

Well, Larry Kubal wrote this

Eric Hill812251 — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 11:46:24 -0700

Well, Larry Kubal wrote this prediction. If you read this very specifically, it could be read as a prediction for the future. However, I personally believe that the "spirit" Larry was going for meant any month in 2008. If Facebook broke that milestone in July, for example, I would likely close this as having occurred. It was a very early prediction, before we were all fully "trained" (and I still make mistakes). ;)

@TIS, what if Facebook

David Kuan — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 10:32:30 -0700

@TIS, what if Facebook breaks 39.9M unique prior to December 2008 report?

Facebook's 2008 growth less than 15%?

Larry Kubal — Fri, 29 Feb 2008 15:25:45 -0800

Specifically: according to comScore, Facebook had 34.7 million uniques in December 2007. The bet is that Facebook's December 2008 comScore number will be less than 39.9 million uniques.